Internet abstract

Dawson On Measuring Speeds

Doug Dawson of CCG Consulting shared an excellent blog post this morning titled The Fantasy of Measuring Speeds. He gives an excellent overview of why two people who live in the same city might experience different speeds despite subscribing to the same plan offered by an internet service provider.

Dawson argues that lots of important information is thrown away when we pretend that a single measure of speed can explain the quality of a service a provider offers. Internet services don’t even offer individual customers a fixed speed:

What’s the right speed on a broadband network? The speed that can be obtained at 4:00 in the morning when the network is empty or the speed at 8:30 in the evening when the network is bogged down with the heaviest neighborhood usage?

If you’ve never done it, I suggest you run multiple speed tests, back-to-back. I am on a Charter cable network and I ran speed tests for any hour recently and I saw reported speed varying by as much as 50%. What speed is my broadband connection?…The FCC is about to embark on a grand new scheme to force ISPs to better define and report broadband speeds. It’s bound to fail. If I can’t figure out the speed on my cable modem connection, then the FCC is on a fool’s mission.

The trouble with the FCC’s approach is that the agency wants an ISP to report actual speed by clusters of homes – today it’s by Census block and soon it will be polygons. But this is a waste of everybody’s time when nobody can even define the speed for an individual home.

I strongly recommend the full post.

While I largely agree with Dawson, I take a more optimistic stance. Transitioning from collecting data at the census-block level to collecting data at the level of polygons may bring incremental improvements. I’d like to see that transition, even if it won’t solve underlying issues with the FCC’s approach.

Farmer with tablet

Rural Digital Opportunity Fund (RDOF) Phase 1 Results

Today, the FCC announced the winners of the Rural Digital Opportunity Fund Phase 1 auction. In this reverse auction, the FCC had up to 16 billion dollars in funds available for compensating companies building out broadband networks in underserved areas.

The excerpt below comes from the FCC’s press release:

Auction results released today show that bidders won funding to deploy high-speed broadband to over 5.2 million unserved homes and businesses, almost 99% of the locations available in the auction. Moreover, 99.7% of these locations will be receiving broadband with speeds of at least 100/20 Mbps, with an overwhelming majority (over 85%) getting gigabit-speed broadband.

While up to 16 billion dollars was available in this phase, only 9.2 billion dollars were allocated. The leftover funds will be added to the pot of money available in the next RDOF phase.

Winning companies in this phase of the auction will have funding awarded over the next ten years (contingent on companies meeting certain milestones).

Results

Below, I share the full list of 180 winners sorted by the funding awarded.1

CompanyAmount
LTD Broadband LLC$1,320,920,718.60
CCO Holdings, LLC (Charter Communications)$1,222,613,870.10
Rural Electric Cooperative Consortium$1,104,395,953.00
Space Exploration Technologies Corp.$885,509,638.40
Windstream Services LLC, Debtor-In-Possession$522,888,779.80
AMG Technology Investment Group LLC$429,228,072.90
Frontier Communications Corporation, DIP$370,900,832.80
Resound Networks, LLC$310,681,608.90
Connect Everyone LLC$268,851,315.90
CenturyLink, Inc.$262,367,614.20
Etheric Communications LLC$248,634,963.10
California Internet, L.P. dba GeoLinks$234,889,665.70
Consortium of AEG and Heron Broadband I$194,378,552.00
NRTC Phase I RDOF Consortium$156,714,678.20
Segnem Egere Consortium$152,854,440.70
NexTier Consortium$126,287,693.30
RDOF USA Consortium$112,044,022.70
Prospero Broadband Consortium$100,366,008.80
Point Broadband Fiber Holding, LLC$78,414,413.10
Mercury Wireless, Inc.$68,310,842.00
Co-op Connections Consortium$61,485,589.50
Consolidated Communications, Inc.$58,873,337.50
Frontier Communications Northwest, LLC$57,202,650.80
Talkie Communications, Inc.$57,065,010.20
Citynet West Virginia, LLC$53,516,858.30
Consortium 2020$48,918,960.90
Computer 5, Inc. d/b/a LocalTel Communications$48,818,171.30
Wilkes Telephone Membership Corporation$46,055,343.40
Bay Springs Telephone Company, Inc.$41,871,850.10
Continental Divide Electric Cooperative$38,004,786.20
Cal.net, Inc.$29,169,982.60
Commnet Wireless, LLC$28,436,936.10
GigaBeam Networks, LLC$28,067,881.20
Cincinnati Bell Inc.$26,887,580.40
Aptitude Internet LLC$24,655,295.20
Armstrong Telephone Company – Northern Division$22,009,640.50
Grain Communications Opportunity Fund II, L.P.$19,172,673.60
Arrowhead Electric Cooperative, Inc.$18,462,273.10
RHMD, LLC$18,303,843.20
Paul Bunyan Rural Telephone Cooperative$16,307,892.10
Direct Communications Rockland, Inc.$15,745,252.70
Connecting Rural America$14,180,599.00
Blackfoot Telephone Cooperative, Inc.$12,703,077.60
Halstad Telephone Company$12,141,118.40
South Arkansas Telephone Company$11,387,245.50
Pine Belt Communications, Inc.$11,126,003.10
Centre WISP Venture Company, LLC$11,086,348.40
Micrologic Inc.$10,036,047.70
Emery Telephone dba Emery Telcom$9,822,853.00
Digital Connections Inc. dba PRODIGI$8,583,001.40
Rural American Broadband Consortium$8,471,858.10
Chariton Valley Communications Corporation$8,070,272.00
Northern Arapaho Tribal Industries$7,799,035.00
Hamilton County Telephone Co-op$7,796,825.30
St. John Telco$7,116,876.00
Cox Communications, Inc.$6,636,520.50
Reedsburg Utility Commission$6,439,594.10
Savage Communications$6,090,479.10
Hawaii Dialogix Telecom LLC$6,009,953.00
Tennessee Cooperative Group Consortium$5,981,516.90
Peoples Telecom, LLC$5,668,121.40
Cherry Capital Connection, LLC$5,620,840.40
Pioneer Wireless, Inc$5,543,142.00
Atlantic Broadband Finance, LLC$5,407,684.70
Hotwire Communications, Ltd$5,150,040.00
Shenandoah Cable Television, LLC$5,059,616.50
Wisper-CABO 904 Consortium$4,974,442.30
Midcontinent Communications$4,960,473.00
Visionary Communications, Inc.$4,450,264.40
DoCoMo Pacific, Inc.$3,706,235.00
Daviess-Martin County Rural Telephone Corporation$3,565,039.40
Rivers High Group$3,540,398.10
Great Plains Consortium$3,427,873.30
Cellular Services LLC.$3,294,968.60
City of Farmington$3,179,884.50
4-Corners Consortium$2,598,030.00
Pine Cellular Phones, Inc.$2,303,742.10
Mediacom Communications Corporation$2,254,655.00
Hankins Information Technology$2,171,844.50
BEK Communications Cooperative$2,157,719.00
TruVista Communications, Inc.$2,059,050.80
Minnesota Connections c/o Consolidated Tel Company$2,040,278.70
Horizon Communications, Inc.$2,033,292.00
Custer Telephone Cooperative, Inc.$1,954,488.00
American Heartland$1,821,520.00
FiberLight, LLC$1,772,705.80
Bandera Electric Cooperative, Inc.$1,689,601.50
LICT Corporation$1,675,826.80
NBVDS Investment, L.L.C.$1,655,443.40
Central Arkansas Telephone Cooperative, Inc.$1,629,930.50
ACT$1,622,136.00
Siuslaw Broadband, LLC dba Hyak Technologies$1,611,684.90
HomeTown Broadband, Inc.$1,424,229.00
Hughes Network Systems, LLC$1,273,784.00
Union Telephone Company$1,264,770.00
Roseau Electric Cooperative, Inc.$1,228,494.00
Safelink Internet LLC$1,197,661.50
Pembroke Telephone Company, Inc.$1,053,063.00
Fond du Lac Communications Inc.$1,046,123.00
Wikstrom Telephone Company$983,637.00
SLIC Network Solutions, Inc.$978,722.00
Altice USA, Inc.$849,880.00
DTC Cable, Inc.$834,597.00
Nova Cablevision, Inc.$785,400.00
Farmers Mutual Telephone Company$759,822.00
Scott County Telephone Cooperative, Inc.$755,841.60
Horry Telephone Cooperative, Inc.$729,554.50
Terral Telephone Company$716,381.20
Worldwide Technologies, Inc.$700,874.20
Somerset Telephone Co., Inc.$669,564.00
AB Indiana LLC$668,304.10
Albion Telephone Company, Inc.$599,795.70
Palmetto Telephone Communications, LLC$570,024.00
Federated Telephone Cooperative$537,399.00
Daktel Communications, LLC$531,894.00
Redzone Wireless, LLC$507,752.00
MEI Telecom, Inc.$479,789.10
Zito West Holding, LLC$457,596.00
Baraga Telephone Company$444,490.80
Lakeland Communications Group, LLC$408,952.00
Heart of the Catskills Comm. Inc., dba MTC Cable$398,574.00
LigTel Communications, Inc.$385,924.00
Citizens Vermont Acquisition Corporation$373,680.00
Allen’s T.V. Cable Service, Inc.$371,348.10
Plains Internet, LLC$345,624.00
Reservation Telephone Cooperative$337,080.00
Miles Communications LLC$316,641.00
Mountain View Telephone Company$298,572.00
RC Technologies$263,796.00
QCOL, Inc.$235,146.00
Socket Telecom, LLC$232,768.80
St Paul Cooperative Telephone Association$190,908.00
Easton Utilities Commission$189,047.60
Newport Utilities$159,492.00
Mountain West Technologies Corporation$141,801.20
One Ring Networks, Inc.$137,715.00
Hamilton Long Distance Company$128,560.30
Bruce Telephone Company, Inc.$113,745.00
Winnebago Cooperative Telecom Association$104,637.80
WC Fiber, LLC$98,189.50
Net Ops Communications, LLC$69,676.40
Enduring Internet$65,690.00
Gardonville Cooperative Telephone Association$63,903.00
Northeast Missouri Rural Telephone Company$60,126.00
Skywave Wireless, Inc.$57,660.00
MARQUETTE-ADAMS TELEPHONE COOPERATIVE, INC.$55,378.00
yondoo Broadband LLC$54,833.80
Pioneer Long Distance, Inc.$50,994.00
All West Communications, Inc.$46,648.00
XIT Telecommunication & Technology$43,254.50
Corn Belt Telephone$42,237.00
WTC Communications, Inc.$40,845.20
Consortium 904$40,470.00
MCC Network Services, LLC$36,204.00
Pinpoint Bidding Coalition$31,254.00
Wood County Telephone Company d/b/a Solarus$28,848.00
NMSURF, Inc.$26,964.00
KanOkla Telephone Association$26,538.00
Yucca Telecommunications Systems, Inc.$26,221.00
IdeaTek Telcom, LLC$23,590.60
Home Communications, Inc.$15,540.00
Barry Technology Services, LLC$14,502.00
LR Communications, Inc.$13,974.00
Farmers Mutual Cooperative Telephone Company$12,447.00
PVT NetWorks, Inc.$12,039.00
Baldwin Telecom, Inc.$11,370.00
H&B Communication’s, Inc.$11,301.60
NTS Communications, LLC$8,923.00
W. T. Services, Inc.$8,785.70
Computer Techniques, Inc. dba CTI Fiber$8,509.00
Sandhill Telephone Cooperative, Inc.$6,396.00
Taylor Telephone Coop., Inc. dba Taylor Telecom$5,466.00
Comcell Inc.$4,644.00
Peoples Communication, LLC.$4,140.00
Plateau Telecommunications, Inc.$3,150.00
Coleman County Telephone Cooperative, Inc.$3,142.80
Bloosurf, LLC$1,860.50
Wildstar$1,790.00
Unified Communications Inc.$1,604.00
Carolina West Wireless, Inc.$460.00
Satellite illustration

Oversubscription Rates For Satellite Internet

Today, Doug Dawson published a blog post titled Understanding Oversubscription. In the post, Dawson gives a good introduction to how and why internet service providers oversell their services.

In the post’s comments section, a question was raised about oversubscription rates with satellite internet services. Conveniently, there’s enough publicly available information to make a back-of-the-envelope estimates of the oversubscription rates for HughesNet and Viasat, the largest satellite internet providers in the United States.

HughesNet Oversubscription Rate

HughesNet’s JUPITER 1 and JUPITER 2 satellites have a combined capacity of about 320Gbps.1 The last annual report for HughesNet’s parent company reported roughly 1.4 million subscribers in the Americas.2 I can guesstimate HughesNet’s oversubscription rate with the help of a few simplifying assumptions:

  • All 1.4 million customers in the Americans are served by JUPITER 1 and JUPITER 2
  • No other customers are served by JUPITER 1 or JUPITER 2
  • On average, customers subscribe to plans with 25Mbps speeds

With those assumptions, HughesNet has an oversubscription rate of about 109.3

Viasat Oversubscription Rate

Viasat’s 2020 Annual Report states that the company has 590,000 subscribers in the U.S.4 Based on some information on Viasat’s website, I can infer that the company’s active satellites have a combined capacity of about 375Gbps.5 Viasat serves a good number of customers outside of the U.S., which complicates the analysis. I’ll pretend half of the capacity, about 188Gbps, is available to U.S. customers. With these assumptions and an average speed of 25Mbps, I can roughly guesstimate Viasat’s oversubscription rate at about 78.6

More On Starlink Terminal Costs

A Business Insider article (paywalled) came out a few hours ago and suggested SpaceX is paying STMicroelectronics about 2.4 billion dollars to manufacture a million Starlink terminals. Business Insider kept the identity of its source confidential, but the source is described as someone “known to Business Insider.”

The source is quoted saying:

The production agreement specifies 1 million terminals at a price of roughly $2,400 each.

$2,400 is a significantly higher price tag than I would have expected for a terminal, but I’m not sure how seriously to take the new information. While I think it’s true that STMicroelectronics is manufacturing Starlink terminals, the full details of SpaceX’s arrangement weren’t communicated in the Business Insider piece. I wouldn’t be surprised if millionth terminal’s marginal cost ends up well under $2,400.

Satellite Dish

Starlink’s Terminal Costs

Starlink beta testers can purchase a user terminal and a router for about $500. Starlink probably sells these terminals at a significant loss. In a tweet shared earlier this month, Elon Musk wrote:

Lowering Starlink terminal cost, which may sound rather pedestrian, is actually our most difficult technical challenge.

In a recent earnings call, Pradman Kaul, CEO and President of Hughes Network Systems, gave some perspective on the cost of Starlink’s terminal in comparison to conventional terminals for satellite internet:

The big advantage we would have over Starlink is the economics…Our antenna in Jupiter [Hughes’ terminal], it costs $40 to $50. I think most people would agree that, today, the phased array antenna [what Starlink uses] costs are around $1,400, $1,500. So the economics just going to not be a big advantage for them. In fact, it’s going to make our offerings much more attractive.

When Will Starlink Be Available In More States?

February 12, 2021 Update: Starlink has expanded availability substantially since this page was first published. You can check availability at your location on Starlink’s website.

Users on a Reddit thread are logging information about the locations of Starlink beta testers. At the moment, it looks like Starlink has sent invites to people in latitudes between 45.3°N and 48.4°N. Some invites have been sent in at least seven states:

  • Idaho
  • Michigan
  • Minnesota
  • Montana
  • Oregon
  • Washington
  • Wisconsin

Tweet updates

Today, Elon Musk suggested more invites are about to go out:

Follow-up comments shed a bit of light on Starlink’s expansion plans:

While a comment on Twitter falls short of a formal statement, Musk’s comment provides the most recent information I’ve seen about Starlink’s timelines. We might only be a few months away from Starlink offering service in a lot more places.

Starlink’s Terms Of Service & Mars

The terms of service for Starlink’s beta program were recently shared on Reddit. Here’s the contents of the terms found below the heading “Governing Law” (emphasis mine):

For Services provided to, on, or in orbit around the planet Earth or the Moon, these Terms and any disputes between us arising out of or related to these Terms, including disputes regarding arbitrability (“Disputes”) will be governed by and construed in accordance with the laws of the State of California in the United States. For Services provided on Mars, or in transit to Mars via Starship or other colonization spacecraft, the parties recognize Mars as a free planet and that no Earth-based government has authority or sovereignty over Martian activities. Accordingly, Disputes will be settled through self-governing principles, established in good faith, at the time of Martian settlement.

I have my doubts about enforceability, but it’s entertaining regardless.

Starlink’s Better Than Nothing Beta

SpaceX’s Starlink is launching a public beta. Yesterday, a Reddit user shared the contents of an invite email. In the email’s opening, Starlink takes a self-deprecating tone:1

We are trying to lower your initial expectations 😛

Expect to see data speeds vary from 50Mb/s to 150Mb/s and latency from 20ms to 40ms over the next several months as we enhance the Starlink system. There will also be brief periods of no connectivity at all.

It’s refreshing to see an internet service provider (ISP) taking such a candid approach. Emojis, transparency, and Starlink’s name for the service, the “Better Than Nothing Beta,” all contract starkly with the usual corporate-marketing-speak from conventional ISPs. Even with an initial speed of 50Mbps and latency of 40ms, Starlink could be a big improvement for people living in areas that aren’t served by modern, wired ISPs.

Improvements

The email invitation suggested Starlink’s performance will improve substantially over time:

As we launch more satellites, install more ground stations, and improve our networking software, data speed, latency and uptime will improve dramatically. For latency, we expect to achieve 16ms to 19ms by summer 2021.

Starlink beta pricing

Subscribers joining the Better Than Nothing Beta will have to pay about $100 a month for service and a roughly $500 one-time fee for a user terminal and a router.

I don’t know if the $500 price tag is a good proxy for how much it costs Starlink to produce a terminal. Starlink may be partially subsidizing terminals to keep the service attractive.

T-Mobile Expands LTE Home Internet Options

T-Mobile just announced that it will massively expanded the pilot program for its LTE home internet service. Almost 500 cities are being added to the service. T-Mobile shared a list of new locations in its press release.

In the press release, T-Mobile takes a lot of shots at AT&T’s recent decision to cease offering DSL service:

What AT&T takes away, T-Mobile brings back. Following news that AT&T is discontinuing DSL home broadband in many communities, T-Mobile is massively expanding its Home Internet pilot service to give another option to an additional 20 million households in parts of 450 cities and towns — many in rural America — being abandoned by AT&T in the middle of a pandemic when connectivity has never been more important.

While I’ve only looked into it briefly, T-Mobile’s service seems promising. With automatic payments enabled, it comes in at $50 per month. It looks like that $50 includes taxes, fees, and hardware costs. Further, T-Mobile doesn’t appear to be pushing subscribers into long-term contracts.

The service seems to be in its infancy. I entered two different address on T-Mobile’s website to whether the internet service was available. In both cases, I didn’t actually get an answer. Instead, T-Mobile requested my contact information and suggested the company would get in touch if service was available in my area.

You can find more information about T-Mobile’s LTE home internet service on the company’s website.

Verizon Expands LTE Home Internet

Verizon just expanded its LTE Home Internet. The service is now available in parts of 189 markets, including parts of every state except Alaska and Vermont. You can check availability in your area on Verizon’s website.

Verizon’s LTE Home Internet could be a good option in places where conventional broadband is not available. The service has no monthly usage limits, and Verizon says speeds will typically fall between 25Mbps and 50Mbps.

Pricing

Current Verizon mobile customers can get service for as little as $40 per month.1 For those who don’t already have Verizon service, LTE Home Internet is available for as low as $60 per month.2

A special router is needed to use the service. Verizon sells the router for $240 and offers it through a $10 per month payment plan.