Third-party Evaluation: Trophies for Everyone!

A lot of third-party evaluations are not particularly useful. Let’s look at HostGator, one of the larger players in the shared web hosting industry, for some examples. For a few years, HostGator had an awards webpage that proudly listed all of the awards it “won.”

Many of the entities issuing awards were obviously affiliate sites that didn’t provide anything even vaguely resembling rigorous evaluation:

Fortunately, HostGator’s current version of the page is less ridiculous.

Even evaluations carried out by serious, established entities often have problems. Rigorous evaluation tends to be difficult. Accordingly, third-party evaluators generally use semi-rigorous methodologies—i.e., methodologies that have merit but also serious flaws.

In many industries, there will be several semi-rigorous evaluators using different methodologies. When an evaluator enters an industry, it will have to make a lot of decisions about its methods:

  • Should products be tested directly or should consumers be surveyed?
  • What metrics should be measured? How should those metrics be measured?
  • If consumers are surveyed, how should the surveyed population be selected?
  • How should multiple metrics be aggregated into an overall rating?

These are tough questions that don’t have straightforward answers.

Objective evaluation is often impossible. Products and services may have different characteristics that matter to consumers—for example, download speed and call quality for cell phone services. There’s no defensible, objective formula you can use to assess how important one characteristic’s quality is versus another.

There’s a huge range of possible, defensible methods that evaluators can use. Different semi-rigorous methods will lead to different rankings of overall quality. This can lead to situations where every company in an industry can be considered the “best” according to at least one evaluation method.

In other words: Everyone gets a trophy!

This phenomenon occurs in the market for cell phone carriers. At the time of writing, Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Sprint all get at least one legitimate evaluator’s approval. (More details in The Mobile Phone Service Confusopoly.)

Evaluators are often compensated in exchange for permission to use their results and/or logos in advertisements. Unfortunately, details on the specific financial arrangements between evaluators and the companies they recommend are often private.

Here are a few publicly known examples:

  • Businesses must pay a fee before displaying Better Business Bureau (BBB) logos in their advertisements.1
  • J.D. Power is believed to charge automobile companies for permission to use its awards in advertisements.2
  • AARP-approved providers pay royalties to AARP.3

An organization that is advertising an endorsement from the most rigorous evaluator in its field probably won’t be willing to pay a lot to advertise an endorsement from a second evaluator. A company with no endorsements will probably be much more willing to pay for its first endorsement.

Since there are many possible, semi-rigorous evaluation methodologies, maybe we should expect at least one evaluator to look kindly upon each major company in an industry. This phenomenon could even occur without any evaluator deliberately acting dishonestly. For example, lots of evaluators might try their hand at evaluation in a given industry. Each evaluator would use its own method. If an evaluator came out in favor of a company that didn’t have an endorsement, the evaluator would be rewarded monetarily and continue to evaluate within the industry. If an evaluator came out in favor of a company that already had an endorsement, the evaluator could exit the industry.

Bogus Evaluation Websites

Sturgeon’s law: Ninety percent of everything is crap.1

Rankings & reviews online

The internet is full of websites that ostensibly rank, rate, and/or review companies within a given industry. Most of these websites are crappy. Generally, these ranking websites cover industries where affiliate programs offering website owners large commissions are common.

Here are a few examples of industries and product categories where useless review websites are especially common:

  • Credit cards
  • Web hosting services
  • Online fax services
  • VoIP services
  • VPN services
  • Foam mattresses

If you Google a query along the lines of “Best [item from the list above]” you’ll likely receive a page of search results with a number of “top 10 list” type sites. At the top of your search results you will probably see ads like these:

Lack of in-depth evaluation methodologies

Generally, these “review” sites don’t go into any kind of depth to assess companies. As far as I can tell, rankings tend to be driven primarily by a combination of randomness and the size of commissions offered.

Admittedly, it’s silly to think that the evaluation websites found via Google’s ads would be reliable. Unfortunately, the regular (non-ad) search results often include a lot of garbage “review” websites. From the same query above:

Most of these websites don’t offer evaluation methodologies that deserve to be taken seriously.

Even the somewhat reputable names on the list (i.e. CNET & PCMag) don’t offer a whole lot. Neither CNET nor PCMag clearly explain their methodologies, and the written content doesn’t lead me to believe either entity went in depth to evaluate the services considered.2

Fooling consumers

If consumers easily recognized these bogus evaluation websites for what they are, the websites would just be annoyances. Unfortunately, it looks like a substantial portion of consumers don’t realize these websites lack legitimacy.

Google offers a tool that presents prices that “advertisers have historically paid for a keyword’s top of page bid.” According to this tool, advertisers are frequently paying several dollars per click on the kind of queries that return ads for bogus evaluation websites:3

We should expect that advertisers will only be willing to pay for ads when the expected revenue per click is greater than the cost per click. The significant costs paid per click suggest that a non-trivial portion of visitors to bogus ranking websites end up purchasing from one of the suggested companies.

How biased are evaluation websites found via Google?

Let’s turn to another industry. The VPN industry shares a lot of features with the web hosting industry. Both VPN and web hosting services tend to be sold online with reasonably low prices and reoccurring billing cycles. Affiliate programs are very common in both industries.

There’s an awesome third-party website, ThatOnePrivacySite.net, that assesses VPN services and refuses to accept commissions.4 ThatOnePrivacySite has reviewed over thirty VPN services. At the time of writing, only one, Mullvad, has received a “TOPG Choice” award,5 indicating an excellent review.6

Interestingly, Mullvad doesn’t have an affiliate program. That allowed me to perform a little experiment. I Googled the query “Best VPN service”. I received 15 results directing to websites that ranked VPN services.

Six of the results came from paid ads. None of those six websites listed Mullvad.

Of the nine websites in the organic results, only three listed Mullvad:7

  • Tom’s Guide
  • TheBestVPN.com
  • PCWorld